Federer, Nadal roll into fourth round in Melbourne

Tennis Betting Lines

01/20/2012 - Melbourne, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal were each straight-set winners Friday in third-round action at the Australian Open.

Federer, this year's third seed and a four-time winner in Melbourne, battled through a tough first set against Ivo Karlovic before capturing a 7-6 (8-6), 7-5, 6-3 win over the hard-serving Croatian. The 16-time Grand Slam champion had to save a set point in the first-set tiebreaker and did so with a lob over the 6-foot-10 Karlovic.

"I'm happy I found a way today," said Federer, who played his 998th career match on Friday. "[The] first set was crucial, like I said. [I'm] happy to be through in straight sets."

The second-seeded Nadal, who beat Federer for the 2009 Aussie Open crown, had little trouble in a 6-2, 6-4, 6-2 rout of Slovakia's Lukas Lacko. The 10-time Grand Slam champ has won each of his three matches in straight sets and hasn't yet faced a tiebreaker.

"I've played three matches at a very good level," Nadal said. "Today was one of the best. [It was] solid, without mistakes, [I was] comfortable with the serve [and] having good returns."

Things could start to get difficult for both men in the fourth round.

Federer, who had three days off before Friday's win because of a walkover in the second round, will be tested by Australian crowd favorite Bernard Tomic, while Nadal will square off against fellow Spaniard Feliciano Lopez.

Tomic, who rallied from two sets down to win his first-round match against Spain's Fernando Verdasco, went five again on Friday and advanced with a 4-6, 7-6 (7-0), 7-6 (8-6), 2-6, 6-3 win over 13th-seeded Alexandr Dolgopolov of the Ukraine.

The 30-year-old Federer and 19-year-old Tomic have met just once previously, a four-set win for the Swiss veteran in a Davis Cup World Group playoff last year.

As for Nadal, he'll take on a familiar opponent in Lopez. The two have met 10 times previously, with Nadal winning eight. Lopez needed five sets to advance on Friday, as the 18th seed outlasted American John Isner, 6-3, 6-7 (3-7), 6-4, 6-7 (0-7), 6-1.

"I hit great shots," Lopez said about his effort. "Sometimes I hit a little bit too much, too many double faults at one point, but overall I think I played great. I played great points."

Isner was the last American hope in Melbourne. It's the first time since 1973 that no American man has reached the round of 16 at the Australian Open. There were also no American men entered in 1973.

"It's very disappointing," Isner stated. "That's not a good effort from the Americans this tournament. I knew going in today I was the last one left and I wanted to keep on going, but just didn't happen. But it's very ugly, to be honest, to have no one in the round of 16. We've got to try to rectify that next time the big tournaments roll around."

Other winners Friday were seventh-seeded Tomas Berdych of the Czech Republic, 10th-seeded Spaniard Nicolas Almagro, 11th-seeded Juan Martin del Potro of Argentina and unseeded German Philipp Kohlschreiber.

Berdych earned a 7-6 (7-5), 7-6 (7-1), 6-1 victory over South Africa's Kevin Anderson and will next take on Almagro, who notched a 7-6 (7-2), 6-2, 6-4 win over Switzerland's Stanislas Wawrinka.

Del Potro dropped a mere five games in a straight-set thumping of Taipei's Yen-Hsun Lu and will next face Kohlschreiber, who toppled Colombia's Alejandro Falla, 6-3, 6-2, 7-6 (7-3). Falla eliminated eighth-seeded American Mardy Fish in the second round.

The third round continues Saturday with eight matches and features top-seeded Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Aussie veteran Lleyton Hewitt.

Djokovic will battle Frenchman Nicolas Mahut with a potential fourth-round match against Hewitt on the horizon. Hewitt would have to beat Canada's Milos Raonic on Saturday.

The fourth-seeded Murray, who lost to Djokovic in last year's final and was also the runner-up to Federer two years ago, will meet Frenchman Michael Llodra. Ferrer, the fifth seed, will tangle with Argentina's Juan Ignacio Chela, while the sixth-seeded Tsonga will take on Portugal's Frederico Gil.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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